ATB Kept 95% of Renewing Borrowers While Originating $5.6 Billion in Mortgages

## ATB Kept 95% of Renewing Borrowers While Originating $5.6 Billion in Mortgages ATB Financial closed $5.6 billion in new residential mortgages in fiscal 2026. That's the highest origination volume in the institution's history, achieved during a year when most borrowers were renewing into rates roughly double what they'd locked in during 2020 and 2021. The renewal rate tells the sharper story. Ninety-five percent of ATB's maturing mortgage clients stayed. They didn't shop. They didn't switch to a Big Six bank offering 10 basis points less. They renewed with ATB, accepted the new rate, and moved on. That outcome isn't just high retention. It's evidence that the structure of mortgage switching has changed. The math that once drove borrowers to compare offers—saving $40 a month by moving institutions—now competes against friction that didn't exist when rates were stable. Qualifying under current stress test rules means proving you can carry a mortgage at 7% or more, even if the actual rate is 4.5%. A borrower who qualified in 2021 at 1.79% might no longer qualify anywhere else, even if their income hasn't dropped. Staying isn't always loyalty. Sometimes it's the only door that's open. Regional lenders are using that constraint as a moat. ATB isn't competing on rate alone. It's competing on the certainty of approval and the absence of paperwork friction. A client who renews doesn't re-prove income, doesn't get re-appraised, doesn't wait three weeks for underwriting. The path of least resistance has become the path most taken, and ATB's 95% figure suggests the market has normalized around it. The $5.6 billion in new originations came largely from two sources: permanent residents using recently expanded insured mortgage caps, and first-time buyers stretching into 30-year amortizations. Both groups entered the market in 2026 because policy changes in late 2024 made it structurally possible. The insured mortgage cap rose from $1 million to $1.5 million. Amortization limits for first-time buyers and new builds extended to 30 years. These weren't minor adjustments. They redefined who could qualify and what monthly payment they'd carry. ATB's performance is a Western Canadian data point, but it mirrors what's happening across BC's credit unions and regional banks. High retention isn't unique to Alberta. It's the result of a mortgage market where switching costs—regulatory, procedural, psychological—have exceeded the savings available from rate shopping. Borrowers are no longer comparing 2.5% to 2.4%. They're comparing 4.8% to 4.6%, and the $30-a-month difference doesn't justify requalifying from scratch. The broader implication: lenders that maintained client relationships during the low-rate years now hold structural advantages that have nothing to do with their balance sheets. A borrower who stayed with ATB since 2019 has less reason to leave in 2026 than a borrower who switched twice chasing lower rates. The system rewards stickiness, and ATB's record origination volume suggests they've figured out how to convert that stickiness into growth. This isn't a return to normal. It's the arrival of a new equilibrium where 4–5% rates are no longer shocking, where renewals happen with less drama than expected, and where regional institutions can hold their own against national players by simply making the process easier. ATB's 95% renewal rate isn't a win. It's a signal that the market has adjusted.